Study shows U.S. plastic waste imports are unstable as tariffs drive up costs for consumers and manufacturers
Austin, Texas — A new study from Dr. Raymond Robertson of Texas A&M University, titled Plastic Trade, Tariffs, and The Case For A Deposit Refund System, combined with fresh global trade warnings, makes clear that Texas must take control of its recycling future. The research demonstrates that U.S. imports of plastic waste are uniquely unstable, heading towards collapse when tariffs change, while global experts now warn that tariff-driven costs will weigh heavily on American consumers and manufacturers through 2026.
Dr. Robertson’s analysis shows that even small increases in tariffs cause dramatic swings in U.S. plastic waste imports, a volatility that threatens both manufacturing supply chains and environmental progress.
Tariffs have been an important first step in protecting U.S. industries and pushing manufacturers to look closer to home for recycled content. But unless Texas builds the capacity to collect that material here, manufacturers will remain vulnerable, and communities will continue to deal with litter and polluted waterways. A Texas deposit refund system would complement tariff policy by creating a stable, homegrown supply of recycled content while reducing the trash that clogs rivers and highways.
“This research proves that our recycling system is too dependent on unpredictable foreign waste streams,” said Maia Corbitt, President of Texans for Clean Water. “We applaud the first steps taken to defend American industry through tariffs, but the next step is here at home. A deposit refund system ensures bottles and cans are collected in Texas, recycled in Texas, and kept out of our waterways, all while protecting families from rising costs.”
The risks extend beyond the environment. Tariffs on metals have already raised costs for food and beverage packaging, and plastics are on the same path. With imports of recycled PET plastic now subject to new tariff rules, the burden is shifting to manufacturers and consumers alike.
“Tariffs help rebalance trade, but they only work on unleashing the American packaging industry if we back them up with strong domestic collection,” said Joe Trotter, Director of Texans for Clean Water. “Dr. Robertson’s work shows the danger of relying on volatile imports. Texas can lead by pairing tariffs with a deposit refund system that secures the material our manufacturers need while cleaning up our rivers and communities.”
Texans for Clean Water continues to advocate for a market-driven deposit refund system modeled on successful programs worldwide. Such a system would keep billions of dollars’ worth of recyclable material circulating in Texas, cut litter, and strengthen local supply chains, insulating the state from global instability.the environmental footprint of everyday products.
For Texas, the stakes are especially high. Our state is home to world-class manufacturers and growing demand for recycled content, yet far too many bottles and cans still end up in landfills, ditches, and rivers. Tours like this highlight the missing link between regulators, facilities, and the industrial demand, but we need more efficient systems to capture those containers in the first place.
Around the country, deposit recycling or “recycling refund” systems have proven they can dramatically increase collection rates and deliver exactly the kind of clean material facilities like Indorama depend on.
Texans for Clean Water will continue connecting policymakers with the people who make recycling work on the ground—facility operators, brand owners, and community leaders—so that future legislation reflects both environmental priorities and economic realities. When Texas captures more bottles and cans for recycling, the payoff is immediate: less litter in our waterways, more reliable domestic supply for American manufacturers, and stronger local economies built on turning yesterday’s waste into tomorrow’s raw material.